Bitcoin Could Be Nearing a Bear Market Bottom, 10x Research Says

Bitcoin may be entering the final stages of its current bear market, according to analysts at 10x Research, who point to growing losses among short-term holders as a sign that selling pressure is beginning to ease.

The firm highlighted that the Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH MVRV) ratio has fallen below 0.90, a level that has historically coincided with Bitcoin forming major market bottoms. The metric compares the market value of coins held by short-term investors with the price they originally paid.

Historical Pattern Suggests Recovery Could Follow#

According to 10x Research, previous bear market cycles have shown that when the STH MVRV drops below 0.90, Bitcoin often enters a bottoming phase before eventually recovering.

The analysts noted that short-term holders are typically the first to sell during periods of market stress. Once most speculative investors have exited, selling pressure tends to weaken, allowing longer-term investors to gradually accumulate Bitcoin.

However, the research firm cautioned that identifying a market bottom does not guarantee an immediate rebound. Bitcoin prices can remain volatile for weeks or even months before establishing a sustained uptrend.

Macro Risks Still Cloud the Outlook#

Despite the encouraging on-chain signal, analysts warned that broader macroeconomic conditions remain a key risk for Bitcoin.

Factors including elevated interest rates, a stronger US dollar, and investor caution toward risk assets could continue to weigh on the cryptocurrency market. Earlier this year, 10x Research suggested Bitcoin could revisit the $55,000 level before confirming a long-term bottom if macro conditions deteriorate further.

For now, the latest on-chain data suggests Bitcoin may be closer to the end of its correction than the beginning. Whether that develops into a lasting recovery will likely depend on improving market sentiment and a more supportive macroeconomic backdrop.