Peter Brandt Predicts the Exact Day Bitcoin's Bear Market Will End

Most analysts avoid naming a date. Peter Brandt just named one.

The veteran trader, who has worked in markets for more than 50 years, says Bitcoin's bear market will end on a specific day this year: October 4, 2026. He shared the call in an interview with Cointelegraph, admitting it was a bold thing to put in writing.

"I'll go out on a limb and say we bottom on October 4th," he said.

Here's what's behind that date, and how much weight to give it.

Why October 4?#

Brandt's forecast comes from Bitcoin's four-year cycle. Historically, Bitcoin has moved in long swings: a big rise, a hard fall, then a slow recovery. If that pattern holds this time, he expects the low point to land somewhere between late September and early October. October 4 is his best guess within that window.

He has been pointing at October for a while now, so this isn't a snap judgment. He has also said the date could shift if conditions change.

He thinks the price has further to fall#

Brandt does not believe the worst is over. He expects Bitcoin to drop below $50,000, and possibly into the high $40,000s, before it finally turns.

His reasoning is history. Every major Bitcoin bear market so far has involved a fall of 80% or more from the peak. With this cycle's high around $120,000, a repeat of that pattern would take the price much lower than where it sits today.

Why he says the bottom isn't in yet#

The most interesting part of Brandt's argument isn't about price at all. It's about how people feel.

Real market bottoms, he says, happen when investors give up completely. Not when they are nervous, but when they are done: selling out, walking away, declaring Bitcoin finished. That kind of surrender usually comes with panic and heavy trading volume.

Right now, he describes the mood as emotionally neutral. Plenty of traders still expect a quick bounce. To Brandt, that hopefulness is a sign the process hasn't finished yet.

His longer view is still positive#

Despite the gloomy short term, Brandt is not bearish on Bitcoin overall. He expects a new cycle peak in 2029, somewhere between $250,000 and $300,000.

He also compared Bitcoin favorably to the AI stock boom that has pulled money away from crypto. He doubts investors buying AI shares at today's prices will be pleased two or three years from now. Given $10,000 to invest, he said he would split it evenly between Bitcoin and precious metals.

How seriously should you take an exact date?#

Carefully. Brandt himself acknowledged that calling the precise day of a market bottom is extremely hard, and he left room for the date to move.

Other forecasters also see October as a possible turning point, but their price targets vary widely, from roughly $38,000 to around $57,000. That spread tells you something useful: even people who agree on the timing disagree on the level.

The value in a call like this isn't the date on the calendar. It's the reasoning underneath it, and Brandt's point about capitulation is worth remembering. Bottoms tend to arrive when almost nobody is looking for one.